Why Choat believes One Nation will win Ipswich West
SEAN Choat reckons One Nation will win the seat of Ipswich West, but has praised the ALP's Jo-Ann Miller and Jennifer Howard and insists they will prevail at the next election.
The outspoken and at times controversial former Ipswich West MP for the LNP took his partisan political hat off to give the QT a run down on what would happen at the next state election in local seats.
He pulled no punches, even praising some ALP sitting members, while warning that Labor was in deep trouble in Jim Madden's seat of Ipswich West.
The Somerset councillor said Ipswich West was one seat One Nation would win, but predicted Lockyer would be tight.
Cr Choat said that "we are in very interesting political times" and predicted locally One Nation would have an impact.
Bradley Trussell, just 27, is the One Nation candidate in Ipswich West
He previously worked in the mining industry, but is now a welder in a leading bull bar manufacturing company.
"One Nation have a wonderful young candidate in Bradley Trussell," Cr Choat said.
"He listens to people and I have had numerous people make comment about what a decent young man he is in that regard.
"I think Ipswich West will fall to One Nation, just based on what I hear on the ground in my old seat.
"I am not sure what the LNP is doing. Now the draft boundaries have been cast I suspect they will get on and make their determinations.
"But I think that Lockyer will be close. If Pauline Hanson couldn't win it then it will be difficult for One Nation's Jim Savage (to beat the LNP's Jim McDonald)."
Mr Choat said the ALP's Jennifer Howard would be safe in the seat of Ipswich.
"She has been a good local member and is a decent person," he said.
"I think One Nation will bite into her margin but she will hang on.
"There is no way Jo-Ann Miller will lose her seat of Bundamba.
"Jo-Ann is a formidable politician.
"It is not just the Labor brand with her. People see a bit of a firebrand in her, and they like that.
"The new seat of Jordan is an interesting one and I don't know the dynamics of that eastern part of Ipswich enough.
"But it could be notionally one of those very marginal seats, possibly an LNP win.
Mr Choat said politics was "changing worldwide".
"People are browned off with everyday politics and the two major parties," he said.
"They want something different, something risky and they want to vote for people who speak out.
"People say it will just be red necked conservatives who will vote for One Nation but it will be like 1998.
"They will take seats of both parties, but in our region I suspect it will just be Ipswich West.
"History tells you that. Jack Paff picked it up in 1998."