These two key factors will decide LNP’s fate

POSTAL votes and preferences will determine if the LNP can hang on and hold the seat of Currumbin stopping more pressure on the leadership of Deb Frecklington.

The Opposition leader was on the Gold Coast yesterday and vowed not to stand down if the party loses the southern city seat in the by-election.

"Absolutely not. Let's wait for the votes to come in. This isn't over yet. We know that thousands of people were unable to vote in the Currumbin by-election yesterday," Ms Frecklington said.

"We know that there are still thousands of votes left to be counted. It's going to be very, very close."

At the close of count on election night, the figures showed the LNP's Laura Gerber on 48 per cent of the vote. But her vote yesterday had dropped to less than 44 per cent.

Labor's Kaylee Campradt is on almost 39 per cent of the vote, slightly higher than the ALP's vote in the 2017 campaign. The Greens vote has increased to almost 11 per cent.

Experienced campaigners suggest Labor could get as much as 70 per cent of preferences from The Greens.



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ALP candidate Kaylee Campradt. (AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)
ALP candidate Kaylee Campradt. (AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

Their verdict on Saturday night was "inconclusive" but that progressed yesterday to "we could win this seat".

The LNP expects to do slightly better than Labor on postal votes, having sent out applications. Almost 3000 of those votes are in the balance.

A poll insider told The Bulletin: "Kaylee Campradt could win on green preferences. For her, looking at the vote on Saturday night, it was inconclusive. But she is in a much stronger position today.

"The only thing that might help the LNP would be postal votes, if they trended more to the Liberals. But on these current figures, it is very similar to what happened in Gaven. It was almost exactly the same.

"Labor's Meaghan Scanlon was behind on the primary vote but very strong green preferences got her across the line."

Voters at the Palm Beach Currumbin State School. (Photos/Steve Holland)
Voters at the Palm Beach Currumbin State School. (Photos/Steve Holland)

Labor sources suggest whatever the outcome it is a poor first-up electoral result for LNP leader Deb Frecklington.

"From what we are seeing, it's extraordinarily close. We haven't seen enough of the early figures to say what is happening," a Labor source said.

"A Labor government last won a seat like that off an Opposition in 1951. The blame game has already started (in the LNP). But it is too close to make a call on this one."

Ms Frecklington was asked about the impact of retiring Currumbin LNP MP Jann Stuckey on the campaign. She had referred to Ms Gerber in a national radio interview as a "blow-in".

"Well, look in relation to the former member for Currumbin, it was disappointing and very difficult for Laura and her family to have those unprovoked attacks against them. We ran a positive campaign about the issues that worried the people of Currumbin," Ms Frecklington said.

Labor ran on their candidate Ms Campradt being from family which has lived for decades in the electorate.

Originally published as These two key factors will decide LNP's fate