Turnbull's fundamental miscalculation becomes clear

WHILE we may have to wait days to find out who will form government in Canberra one thing is certain, Malcolm Turnbull has made a fundamental miscalculation and destroyed his own credibility.

Remember the very reason the as yet unelected PM called a double dissolution election? - To clean out a Senate which many believed was stifling the Coalition's ability to push through important reforms.

Now, Turnbull's wrong turn has become clear.

Not only will tonight's result in all likelihood return a Senate run by a diverse and plausibly irrational group of cross-benchers but it may also mean deals have to be made in the House of Representatives to secure government.

We probably won't know for days to come exactly what the make-up of the Senate will be but it will almost certainly include more Greens alongside Pauline Hanson - presenting a diversity which will make negotiations akin to herding cats.

And in the House of Representatives while it does seem likely the Coalition will form government it will be forced to do so in a position of significant vulnerability having bled many seats.

One wonders how many of the MPs who chose to knife Tony Abbott in the hope of saving their seats will be turfed out in the next 24 hours.  

And indeed with most safe seats being held by MPs from the right of the party a successful challenge on Turnbull's leadership seems inevitable.