Poll reveals voters’ intentions in key Qld seats
QUEENSLAND has become an election mirage for Bill Shorten as a landmark poll reveals the LNP has staved-off sustained attacks in three marginal seats and is in striking range of stealing one off Labor.
The LNP is ahead on its primary vote in Flynn, Dickson and Forde and Labor's seat of Herbert. On two-party-preferred terms, the LNP is ahead in Flynn and Dickson, but is 50-50 in Forde and Herbert.
Taken just days before Saturday's crucial election on may 13-14, the YouGov Galaxy poll indicates that predictions of a big Labor win in Queensland - and claim the scalp of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton - are failing to materialise.
Crucially, the polling is unaided, which means respondents were asked which political party they intended to vote for, and did not include candidate's names.
When candidate's names are used, the incumbent usually records a higher primary vote.
The survey shows that in all four seats, a significant number of voters have turned to vanity parties, meaning preferences will determine who will win on Saturday, pointing to tight results.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mr Shorten have 36 hours of frenetic campaigning left to
win-over a large number of undecided voters and lure back Australians seduced by minor parties.
In a sign Mr Morrison has become more confident of his fortunes in Queensland, his campaign turned from defensive to offensive last night.
Mr Morrison hit the hustings in Longman, which was retained by Labor's Susan Lamb in last year's by-election.
Mr Shorten cancelled his trip to Queensland after news broke of Bob Hawke's death.
He was expected to visit Mr Dutton's seat of Dickson for the first time since the election was called, but the former prime minister's death is expected to dominate much of the campaign today.
Despite Mr Dutton's high spending election campaign and sustained on-the-ground presence at pre-poll, he has failed to maintain the 44.7 per cent primary vote he won in 2016, and now sits on 41 per cent.
And despite Labor, union and GetUp! forces throwing everything to unseat Mr Dutton, the ALP's primary vote remains at 35 per cent, the same as 2016. Labor's Ali France is running against Mr Dutton.
But in good news for Mr Dutton, One Nation will preference the LNP ahead of Labor in Dickson and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party has preferenced Mr Dutton at number 2 on its how-to-vote cards.
The latest poll of 542 voters in Dickson has UAP at 9 per cent and One Nation at 3 per cent. Neither party ran in Dickson in 2016.
In Forde, the LNP's Bert van Manen has increased his primary vote from 40.6 per cent in 2016 to 42 per cent in the latest survey of 567 respondents.
However, Labor has also upped its primary vote by more than 3 per cent. Locked in a 50-50 two-party-preferred battle, preferences will decide who will win.
The Greens have lost ground since 2016 and are down 1.4 per cent to 5 per cent.
UAP has clocked up a primary of 4 per cent and One Nation 7 per cent.
One Nation is running a split ticket in Forde but UAP is preferencing the LNP at number 2 on its how-to-vote cards.
The LNP has edged ahead of Labor in Flynn off the back of right-leaning minor parties.
The LNP's Ken O'Dowd is ahead 53-47 on two-party-preferred terms.
The survey of 508 voters, shows two-time candidate Zac Beers has a primary vote of 33 per cent, 0.4 per cent compared to 2016.
Mr O'Dowd lost 0.1 per cent off his primary since 2016 but remains ahead on 37 per cent.
The Greens are steady on 3 per cent, One Nation has dropped from 17.2 to 7 per cent, bleeding to UAP, which has clocked up 11 per cent. Mr O'Dowd will benefit from One Nation and UAP preferences.
In Herbert, Queensland's most marginal seat is locked in a 50-50 two-party preferred battle. Thirty-seven per cent of voters of the 506 surveyed intend to support minor parties.
Labor's Cathy O'Toole, who won the seat by just 37 votes in 2016, has shifted her primary vote by 0.5 per cent despite the benefit of incumbency.
The LNP's candidate Phil Thompson, has a primary vote of 32 per cent, but that is 3.5 per cent lower than what the Coalition polled in the 2016.
Of all the minor parties, Katter's Australia Party has the strongest support at 14 per cent, more than double One Nation's 6 per cent.
In a shock result for One Nation, it's primary vote has dramatically sunk. In 2016, its vote was 13.5 per cent.
The Greens have lost ground from 6.3 per cent in 2016 to 5 per cent.