Map showing 40-45% chance of Ipswich exceeding average rainfall November-January.
Map showing 40-45% chance of Ipswich exceeding average rainfall November-January. Contributed

Danger brewing on our doorstep

PREDICTIONS of a possible La Nina influence on Ipswich weather conditions earlier in the year may have been significantly scaled back, but as we have learned from experience, it always pays to be ready for the worst.

The Bureau of Meteorology's long-term outlook for Ipswich is for almost neutral rain and temperature conditions for the next three months.

Forecaster Kev Hutchins said that although there was possibly a weak La Nina at play, Ipswich was looking at only a 40-45% chance of the area exceeding the median rainfall figure from November to January.

 

Rainfall outlook November - January.Photo: Contributed
Map showing 40-45% chance of Ipswich exceeding average rainfall November-January. Contributed

For this region, that involves a fair drenching, with the average at Amberley for the three months totalling 319.1mm.

Mr Hutchins said severe storms were almost a certainty for the south-east Queensland region at some point during the latter part of the year, regardless of whether there was a La Nina or El Nino in effect.

"You tend to see more serious weather in a La Nina pattern, but we're not looking at a full-blown La Nina.

"We are perhaps leaning towards a weak La Nina," he said.

"You can get a severe storm in any type of season, and it pays to prepare and do all the standard things you do before the storm season in a place like south-east Queensland."

The Bureau's current long-term temperature outlook paints a similar picture, with about a 60% chance of the Ipswich area exceeding the median maximum temperature for the November-January period.

The average temperature at Amberley over the next three months is 30.5 degrees, with January historically our hottest month, averaging 31.1 degrees.