Brassall to decide key seat, says Neumann
WIN Brassall and you win the state seat of Ipswich West.
Win Raceview, Flinders View and Yamanto and you win the seat of Ipswich.
They are the scenarios facing the candidates at the upcoming January 31 state election according to Federal Blair MP Shayne Neumann.
Mr Neumann, an expert on polling and the numbers game of politics, has analysed the seats for the QT and the 2012 and 2013 electoral commission results for both state and federal polling stack up with his views.
The seat of Ipswich West is held by the LNP's Sean Choat who will face a tough run from Labor's Jim Madden.
It is the 6407 voters in the two Brassall booths, and to a lesser extent the 2936 in North Ipswich and 2643 in Karalee, which hold the key to their chances.
Mr Choat performed strongly in Brassall at the 2012 election with a primary vote of 39.9% in the Brassall booth and 46.16% in Brassall West, putting him clear of the other candidates and on the path to victory.
"Ipswich West is divided into areas which tend to vote conservative around rural Ipswich and the lower Somerset, although Cr Jim Madden will have a strong vote in some of those areas because he represents those people in council," Mr Neumann said
"But it also has some more affluent areas around Pine Mountain, Chuwar and Karalee which historically vote fairly high for the conservatives both state and federally.
"It also has some very strong traditionally Labor voting areas which voted heavily for Labor at the last federal election around North Ipswich, Leichhardt and One Mile.
"But the biggest and most crucial area in Ipswich West is Brassall, which is the biggest suburb by a long way with nearly 6500 voters.
"Brassall is the key. It is the swing area. You win Brassall and you win Ipswich West. The key for me in winning the last federal election was winning Brassall, which I did."
The seat of Ipswich has 60% of its voters south of Robertson Rd so Mr Neumann said the three areas around Raceview (5799 voters), Flinders View (3904) and Yamanto (2996) were the key suburbs.
Sitting LNP candidate Ian Berry is under threat from the challenge of Labor's Jennifer Howard. But Mr Berry did well in the two Raceview booths in 2012, polling 35.53% in Raceview and 37.19% in Raceview West to make him the leading candidate there and the eventual winner.
"Traditionally Raceview is the one that swings the most, because like Brassall it has areas of affluence and areas of traditional Labor class voting areas," Mr Neumann said.
"Both Raceview and Brassall are very reflective of the changing demographics of Ipswich. In both of those areas you have new housing estates being built and both are strong growth areas.
"If Jen wins Raceview, Flinders and Yamanto she will win the seat.
"You just have to look at the last federal election result in those areas where I got just under 51% in Flinders View, just over 51% in Yamanto and nearly 59% in Raceview."
Mr Neumann said his last federal election polling was "more reflective of what the voting patterns are likely to be rather than the last state election which was the worst result for Labor in more than 100 years either federally or for state".
"Ipswich voters rejected the national swing and my vote win overall was 5.3% , a swing of 1.1% against the national swing."